Bitcoin (BTC) – The bullish and bearish camps have no shortage of arguments

The $ 67,300 ATH still covers the market

After three weeks of impulsive and vertical rise from the support at 40,000 dollars, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) came into contact with the all-time high set last spring, 67,300 dollars.

Without taking the time to breathe, BTC immediately tried to make a bullish technical breakout during the October 20 session, an attempt neutralized the next day with a reinstatement, a new bullish technical trap in short.

In November and December 2020, the market took the time to build a 3 week range below the ex-ATH of $ 20,000, creating the conditions for momentum to break through resistance and continue the uptrend.

The momentum was therefore vertical in the rise developed between 40,000 dollars and 65,000 dollars, a rise forged on institutional capital which moved towards futures contracts on Bitcoin, while the stock market regulator of the United States (SEC) finally validated two “physical ETF” type Bitcoin funds powered by BTC futures contracts from the Chicago Stock Exchange.

This bullish phase is now being retraced by the market: a simple retracement? This is the view of the bull camp.

For the other camp, the bears who are still waiting for the 15,000 / 20,000 dollars is the beginning of a major double top under 65,000 dollars which is emerging.

In this game, it is the structural biases that come into consideration, no wonder for an “asset class” which is still very young and which is not yet fully recognized as such by the entire financial community.

As for the short term technical analysis message, it is bullish if the support at $ 60,000 is preserved, but bearish towards $ 53,000 if the support at $ 60,000 breaks at the daily close.

Each camp has no shortage of arguments, so here is a summary of the possible cases represented in 3 graphs sketching a general Elliottist count since the low point of the year 2018 which put an end to 85% correction (the corrective waves are built in 3 times, lettered A, B and C).

Market case A for Bitcoin, that of a 5th impulsive bullish wave started on the support at 40,000 dollars (the most bullish case):

Market case B for bitcoin, an unfinished corrective wave 4 taking the form of an “extended flat” towards 20,000 dollars, before resumption of the bull run (this is the most bearish case)

Market case B bis for bitcoin, a corrective wave 4 in “flat” with a second return on 30,000 dollars, then resumption of the bull run (the case that does not suit anyone):

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About the author: Vincent Ganne


Vincent Ganne is at the same time a manager at TradingView, a market strategist, a technical analyst, a trainer on the stock market and a speaker on BFM Business. With a long experience in the field of analysis, he offers a global approach to financial markets. From a macroeconomic point of view, as well as from a microeconomic point of view. Vincent Ganne also uses many aspects of graphical analysis with the aim of forecasting trends in financial assets over the medium and long term.
All articles by Vincent Ganne.

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