The Arcane Research report, entitled “The State of Lightning”, reviews the progress of the scalability solution. He notes that the key indicators are green: the volume of payments via wallets, the gradual adoption of the solution, and the overall capacities of the network in particular.
Moreover, the data reported usually is not sufficient to take into account the actual growth in the number of users of the Lightning Network, according to Arcane Research:
“Public statistics like the total capacity of the channel, as well as the number of nodes show that the Lightning Network is growing rapidly. […] But these public data do not show the real extent of this user growth. “
The volume of payments has exploded in recent months, in particular in September:
Source: Arcane Research
In addition, wallets compatible with the Lightning Network have also exploded, their number increasing by +11,164%:
Source: Arcane Research
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An optimistic future for the Lightning Network?
The Arcane Research report uses this data to try to determine what the number of users will be in the years to come. It relies in particular on El Salvador, whose Chivo state portfolio uses the Lightning Network. According to the report, 90% of the country’s people aged 15 or over will have access to this type of payment by 2026.
The video game industry, as well as video streaming, will also be key avenues for the scalability solution, the report said. It predicts the arrival of micro-transactions on platforms like Spotify or Netflix. It will also be recalled that these recently arrived on Twitter.
Based on all of this, Arcane Research estimates that the Lightning Network will have 700 million users by 2030, which would be one micro-transaction per second:
“Our estimate is nothing less than 364 trillion Lightning transactions per year. “
The report concludes by explaining that these are of course just spells, but that a transformation in the way we pay on the internet may well be strongly supported by the Lightning Network:
“While this is only an estimate, it’s hard to see the potential impact the Lightning Network could have on the services we use today. New innovative companies will emerge. If these services redirect power […] towards users by getting rid of old payment models linked to streaming, the giants we know today will have to act. “
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About the author: Marine Debelloir
Associate Editor on Cryptoast, I fell into the pot of cryptocurrencies a few years ago. I am passionate about the innovative technologies that arise from the blockchain and I like to find the most delicious information to share with you.
All articles by Marine Debelloir.